forecast

Calibrated YES-probability for a binary market question: Monte Carlo of LLM agent societies + base-rate-anchored expert panel, grounded in live price, vol, funding, Polymarket…

Calibrated YES-probability for a binary market question: Monte Carlo of LLM agent societies + base-rate-anchored expert panel, grounded in live price, vol, funding, Polymarket odds and calendar. Async: 202 + forecast_id, poll free. Returns probability, 80% interval, edge vs market, drivers, commitment hash. Public Brier record.

UNRATEDListed

Overview

Grade?

UNRATED

0 of 30 paid calls toward a letter

Price

$0.25 per call

Paid calls

none yet

delivery unknown until someone pays

More info

Seller?

0x21f4a2da…d8f11a94

URL

https://intel.degenscan.io/v1/oracle/forecast

Seen

first 3 days ago · last 22 hr ago

6 free handshakes

Payment

Pays through

x402

Offered on?

Base USDC, Solana

Listed on?

Base, Solana

Score, from free handshakes onlyweights 2026.09.6

UN
RATED

0.245 liveness verified, no letter

To a letter · 30 paid calls

0 of 30

Held back by sample size, not by the seller · gap to 1.000 is 0.755: 0.600 uncertain ? + 0.155 short ? · 0.205 to D

How the composite of 0.245 is made up, part by part
Component	Weight	Measured	Lower bound ?		Adds	Short ?	Uncertain ?
livenesscosts the most it answered at all	0.60	1.00	0.000		0.000	0	−0.600
latency p95 it answered as fast as its class	0.20	0.22	0.223		0.045	−0.155	0
price stability the price stayed where it was listed	0.20	1.00	1.000		0.200	0	0
Composite	1.00		0.245	gap to 1.000 = 0.755 · 0.155 short · 0.600 uncertain	0.245	−0.155	−0.600

Not measured: correctness · nobody paid; honesty · nobody paid; schema conformance · no answer had a published shape to check

The multiplication, written out

  0.600 × 0.000   liveness       
+ 0.200 × 0.223   latency p95    
+ 0.200 × 1.000   price stability
= 0.245           → UNRATED: 5 of 30 paid calls      weights 2026.09.6 · 5 samples · seed cap_01M3TZYP3MFDT4EFG39NGRS2S7|2026-09-04T08:13:23.127Z|2026.09.6

Verify it yourselfnpx teppi-check https://intel.degenscan.io/v1/oracle/forecastcurl -s https://api.teppi.xyz/v1/trust/cap_01M3TZYP3MFDT4EFG39NGRS2S7