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Calibrated YES-probability for a binary market question: Monte Carlo of LLM agent societies + base-rate-anchored expert panel, grounded in live price, vol, funding, Polymarket…
Read moreCalibrated YES-probability for a binary market question: Monte Carlo of LLM agent societies + base-rate-anchored expert panel, grounded in live price, vol, funding, Polymarket odds and calendar. Async: 202 + forecast_id, poll free. Returns probability, 80% interval, edge vs market, drivers, commitment hash. Public Brier record.
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