risk-premium

Strait of Hormuz war-risk transit premium nowcast: a live MODELED war-risk insurance multiple (Nx over the peace baseline, on the published 1x-80x scale) for moving a tanker…

Strait of Hormuz war-risk transit premium nowcast: a live MODELED war-risk insurance multiple (Nx over the peace baseline, on the published 1x-80x scale) for moving a tanker through the strait, recomputed every 5 minutes from throughput deviation (IMF PortWatch), the escalation forecast (Polymarket + Kalshi + Manifold + Brent-WTI spread), crude implied volatility (OVX), and event pressure (news and maritime RSS feeds, the PGSA incident feed and GDELT). The standing straits.live insurance-estimate multiple is carried only as a static reference (it is set manually and changes infrequently); the modeled figure is the live signal, not a divergence from that anchor. Returns a band, a curated VLCC war-premium band ($/voyage, estimated separately from the modeled multiple and not derived from it), per-driver detail, and a confidence that degrades on stale feeds or thin market volume. A modeled situational-awareness indicator, not an insurance quote.

UNRATEDListed

Overview

Grade?

UNRATED

0 of 30 paid calls toward a letter

Price

$0.05 per call

Paid calls

none yet

delivery unknown until someone pays

More info

Seller?

0x1b24deac…4202cf1f

URL

https://straits.live/api/premium/risk-premium

Seen

first 5 days ago · last 15 hr ago

8 free handshakes

Payment

Pays through

x402

Offered on?

Base USDC

Listed on?

Base

Score, from free handshakes onlyweights 2026.09.6

UN
RATED

0.340 liveness verified, no letter

To a letter · 30 paid calls

0 of 30

Held back by sample size, not by the seller · gap to 1.000 is 0.660: 0.460 uncertain ? + 0.200 short ? · 0.110 to D

How the composite of 0.340 is made up, part by part
Component	Weight	Measured	Lower bound ?		Adds	Short ?	Uncertain ?
livenesscosts the most it answered at all	0.60	1.00	0.233		0.140	0	−0.460
latency p95 it answered as fast as its class	0.20	0.00	0.000		0.000	−0.200	0
price stability the price stayed where it was listed	0.20	1.00	1.000		0.200	0	0
Composite	1.00		0.340	gap to 1.000 = 0.660 · 0.200 short · 0.460 uncertain	0.340	−0.200	−0.460

Not measured: correctness · nobody paid; honesty · nobody paid; schema conformance · no answer had a published shape to check

The multiplication, written out

  0.600 × 0.233   liveness       
+ 0.200 × 0.000   latency p95    
+ 0.200 × 1.000   price stability
= 0.340           → UNRATED: 8 of 30 paid calls      weights 2026.09.6 · 8 samples · seed cap_01M3NV25GVXH64K8GDACTVYXY2|2026-09-04T02:59:10.018Z|2026.09.6

Verify it yourselfnpx teppi-check https://straits.live/api/premium/risk-premiumcurl -s https://api.teppi.xyz/v1/trust/cap_01M3NV25GVXH64K8GDACTVYXY2