Endpoint · evidenceGETapi.myceliasignal.com /oracle/intel/prediction/divergence
Cross-venue prediction market divergence — Kalshi vs Polymarket spread on BTC price and Fed rate with significance regime (DIVERGENT/MODERATE/ALIGNED) — Ed25519 signed attestation
Overview
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UNRATED
0 of 30 paid calls toward a letter
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https://api.myceliasignal.com/oracle/intel/prediction/divergence
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first 35 days ago · last 27 days ago
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Score, from free handshakes onlyweights 2026.09.1
UN
RATED
RATED
0.687 liveness verified, no letter
To a letter · 30 paid calls
0 of 30
Held back by sample size, not by the seller · gap to 1.000 is 0.313: 0.172 uncertain ? + 0.141 short ? · 0.113 to B
| Component | Weight | Measured | Lower bound ? | Adds | Short ? | Uncertain ? | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| latency p95costs the most it answered as fast as its class |
0.20 | 0.30 | 0.096 | 0.019 | −0.141 | −0.040 | |
| liveness it answered at all |
0.60 | 1.00 | 0.780 | 0.468 | 0 | −0.132 | |
| price stability the price stayed where it was listed |
0.20 | 1.00 | 1.000 | 0.200 | 0 | 0 | |
| Composite | 1.00 | 0.687 | gap to 1.000 = 0.313 · 0.141 short · 0.172 uncertain | 0.687 | −0.141 | −0.172 |
Not measured: correctness · nobody paid; honesty · nobody paid; schema conformance · no answer had a published shape to check
The multiplication, written out
0.200 × 0.096 latency p95
+ 0.600 × 0.780 liveness
+ 0.200 × 1.000 price stability
= 0.687 → UNRATED: 28 of 30 paid calls weights 2026.09.1 · 28 samples · seed cap_01M1A5Q6AJSH7JMWQRW4SABZHQ|2026-08-15T21:06:38.212Z|2026.09.1
Verify it yourself
npx teppi-check https://api.myceliasignal.com/oracle/intel/prediction/divergencecurl -s https://api.teppi.xyz/v1/trust/cap_01M1A5Q6AJSH7JMWQRW4SABZHQ