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Cross-venue prediction market divergence — Kalshi vs Polymarket spread on BTC price and Fed rate with significance regime (DIVERGENT/MODERATE/ALIGNED) — Ed25519 signed attestation
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first 34 days ago · last 26 days ago
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Handshakescomputed 19 days ago
0.687 from 28 free handshakes over 30 days · UNRATED ?
| Component | Weight | Measured | Lower bound ? | Adds | Short ? | Uncertain ? | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| latency p95costs the most it answered as fast as its class |
0.20 | 0.30 | 0.096 | 0.019 | −0.141 | −0.040 | |
| liveness it answered at all |
0.60 | 1.00 | 0.780 | 0.468 | 0 | −0.132 | |
| price stability the price stayed where it was listed |
0.20 | 1.00 | 1.000 | 0.200 | 0 | 0 | |
| Composite | 1.00 | 0.687 | gap to 1.000 = 0.313 · 0.141 short · 0.172 uncertain | 0.687 | −0.141 | −0.172 |
Not measured: correctness · nobody paid; honesty · nobody paid; schema conformance · no answer had a published shape to check
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