consensus-trend

Kalshi consensus-probability trajectory.

Kalshi consensus-probability trajectory. POST {event}. Wraps Kalshi's unique /events/{ticker}/forecast_history (no other PM exposes formatted forecast percentile history). Returns slope-per-hour over 24h and 3d, acceleration signal (regime change indicator), volatility band, days to resolve, and a stable/accelerating-up/accelerating-down interpretation.

UNRATEDListed

Overview

Grade?

UNRATED

0 of 30 paid calls toward a letter

Price

$0.05 per call

Paid calls

none yet

delivery unknown until someone pays

More info

Seller?

0x0ff5a6ec…5e9e7c86

URL

https://graphadvocate.com/kalshi/consensus-trend

Seen

first 35 days ago · last 18 hr ago

53 free handshakes

Payment

Pays through

x402

Offered on?

Base USDC

Listed on?

Base

Score, from free handshakes onlyweights 2026.09.6

UN
RATED

0.840 liveness verified, no letter

To a letter · 30 paid calls

0 of 30

Held back by sample size, not by the seller · gap to 1.000 is 0.160: 0.082 uncertain ? + 0.078 short ? · 0.060 to A

How the composite of 0.840 is made up, part by part
Component	Weight	Measured	Lower bound ?		Adds	Short ?	Uncertain ?
livenesscosts the most it answered at all	0.60	1.00	0.866		0.520	0	−0.080
latency p95 it answered as fast as its class	0.20	0.61	0.601		0.120	−0.078	−0.002
price stability the price stayed where it was listed	0.20	1.00	1.000		0.200	0	0
Composite	1.00		0.840	gap to 1.000 = 0.160 · 0.078 short · 0.082 uncertain	0.840	−0.078	−0.082

Not measured: correctness · nobody paid; honesty · nobody paid; schema conformance · no answer had a published shape to check

The multiplication, written out

  0.600 × 0.866   liveness       
+ 0.200 × 0.601   latency p95    
+ 0.200 × 1.000   price stability
= 0.840           → UNRATED: 46 of 30 paid calls      weights 2026.09.6 · 46 samples · seed cap_01M1A5AD7QS6DM15MYR8J7NRGK|2026-09-03T08:05:28.550Z|2026.09.6

Verify it yourselfnpx teppi-check https://graphadvocate.com/kalshi/consensus-trendcurl -s https://api.teppi.xyz/v1/trust/cap_01M1A5AD7QS6DM15MYR8J7NRGK