Endpoint · lookupGETapi.polls.karbach.digital /v1/track-record
Frozen forecasts versus official results, 2026 out of sample and 34-election backtest.
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Frozen forecasts versus official results, 2026 out of sample and 34-election backtest. Use when asked how reliable these forecasts were in past elections. Source-attributed, German data, updated every six hours.Overview
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UNRATED
0 of 30 paid calls toward a letter
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$0.01 per call
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https://api.polls.karbach.digital/v1/track-record
MCP server on this host: digital.karbach.polls/elections
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first 10 hr ago · last 10 hr ago
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Score, from free handshakes onlyweights 2026.09.6
UN
RATED
RATED
0.182 liveness verified, no letter
To a letter · 30 paid calls
0 of 30
Held back by sample size, not by the seller · gap to 1.000 is 0.818: 0.750 uncertain ? + 0.068 short ? · 0.268 to D
| Component | Weight | Measured | Lower bound ? | Adds | Short ? | Uncertain ? | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| livenesscosts the most it answered at all |
0.75 | 1.00 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0 | −0.750 | |
| latency p95 it answered as fast as its class |
0.25 | 0.73 | 0.728 | 0.182 | −0.068 | 0 | |
| Composite | 1.00 | 0.182 | gap to 1.000 = 0.818 · 0.068 short · 0.750 uncertain | 0.182 | −0.068 | −0.750 |
Not measured: correctness · nobody paid; honesty · nobody paid; schema conformance · no answer had a published shape to check; price stability · nothing to score
The multiplication, written out
0.750 × 0.000 liveness
+ 0.250 × 0.728 latency p95
= 0.182 → UNRATED: 1 of 30 paid calls weights 2026.09.6 · 1 samples · seed cap_01M59B6T8AD74P86ZDMXWT90R5|2026-09-19T09:05:04.907Z|2026.09.6
Verify it yourself
npx teppi-check https://api.polls.karbach.digital/v1/track-recordcurl -s https://api.teppi.xyz/v1/trust/cap_01M59B6T8AD74P86ZDMXWT90R5