Endpoint · lookupGETkronossignals.com /api/v1/implied-prob/btc
Options-implied probability that BTC or ETH is above each given price at a target time, from the Deribit option book (skew-inclusive call-spread digitals): the options market's…
Read more
Options-implied probability that BTC or ETH is above each given price at a target time, from the Deribit option book (skew-inclusive call-spread digitals): the options market's fair value for Kalshi/Polymarket crypto threshold contracts, not a forecast. Query: strikes=85000,90000 (up to 25), at=ISO time or Unix. $0.02 USDC via x402.Overview
Grade?
UNRATED
0 of 30 paid calls toward a letter
Price
$0.02 per call
Paid calls
none yet
delivery unknown until someone pays
More info
Seller?
URL
https://kronossignals.com/api/v1/implied-prob/btc
Seen
first 10 days ago · last 12 hr ago
17 free handshakes
Payment
Pays through
x402
Offered on?
Base USDC
Listed on?
Base
Score, from free handshakes onlyweights 2026.09.6
UN
RATED
RATED
0.570 liveness verified, no letter
To a letter · 30 paid calls
0 of 30
Held back by sample size, not by the seller · gap to 1.000 is 0.430: 0.230 uncertain ? + 0.200 short ? · 0.080 to C
| Component | Weight | Measured | Lower bound ? | Adds | Short ? | Uncertain ? | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| livenesscosts the most it answered at all |
0.60 | 1.00 | 0.616 | 0.370 | 0 | −0.230 | |
| latency p95 it answered as fast as its class |
0.20 | 0.00 | 0.000 | 0.000 | −0.200 | 0 | |
| price stability the price stayed where it was listed |
0.20 | 1.00 | 1.000 | 0.200 | 0 | 0 | |
| Composite | 1.00 | 0.570 | gap to 1.000 = 0.430 · 0.200 short · 0.230 uncertain | 0.570 | −0.200 | −0.230 |
Not measured: correctness · nobody paid; honesty · nobody paid; schema conformance · no answer had a published shape to check
The multiplication, written out
0.600 × 0.616 liveness
+ 0.200 × 0.000 latency p95
+ 0.200 × 1.000 price stability
= 0.570 → UNRATED: 16 of 30 paid calls weights 2026.09.6 · 16 samples · seed cap_01M38Z1Y6V3EKFNYA377230RS3|2026-09-03T14:22:48.128Z|2026.09.6
Verify it yourself
npx teppi-check https://kronossignals.com/api/v1/implied-prob/btccurl -s https://api.teppi.xyz/v1/trust/cap_01M38Z1Y6V3EKFNYA377230RS3