business-cycle-nowcast

Point-in-time growth and inflation momentum classification across new orders, leading indicators, labour, housing, credit, the yield curve, consumer and producer inflation and…

Point-in-time growth and inflation momentum classification across new orders, leading indicators, labour, housing, credit, the yield curve, consumer and producer inflation and commodities, with revision risk and validation-gated probabilities. Purpose: Classify the current macro season without leaking revised data or publishing unvalidated probabilities. 6-hour freshness target; missing evidence is reported explicitly rather than invented.

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