Endpoint · evidenceGETapi.myceliasignal.com/oracle/prediction/gdp

GDP annualized growth probability distribution from Kalshi — expected value, entropy, per-period implied distribution — Ed25519 signed attestation

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UNRATED

0 of 30 paid calls toward a letter

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0xd593832c…4e96700d

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https://api.myceliasignal.com/oracle/prediction/gdp

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first 34 days ago · last 26 days ago

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Score, from free handshakes onlyweights 2026.09.1

UN
RATED

0.682 liveness verified, no letter

To a letter · 30 paid calls

0 of 30

Held down by latency p95 · gap to 1.000 is 0.318: 0.132 uncertain ? + 0.187 short ? · 0.118 to B

How the composite of 0.682 is made up, part by part
Component	Weight	Measured	Lower bound ?		Adds	Short ?	Uncertain ?
latency p95costs the most it answered as fast as its class	0.20	0.07	0.067		0.013	−0.187	0
liveness it answered at all	0.60	1.00	0.780		0.468	0	−0.132
price stability the price stayed where it was listed	0.20	1.00	1.000		0.200	0	0
Composite	1.00		0.682	gap to 1.000 = 0.318 · 0.187 short · 0.132 uncertain	0.682	−0.187	−0.132

Not measured: correctness · nobody paid; honesty · nobody paid; schema conformance · no answer had a published shape to check

The multiplication, written out

  0.200 × 0.067   latency p95    
+ 0.600 × 0.780   liveness       
+ 0.200 × 1.000   price stability
= 0.682           → UNRATED: 28 of 30 paid calls      weights 2026.09.1 · 28 samples · seed cap_01M1A5Q6A125R5D9TT444JBDPT|2026-08-15T21:06:38.212Z|2026.09.1

Verify it yourselfnpx teppi-check https://api.myceliasignal.com/oracle/prediction/gdpcurl -s https://api.teppi.xyz/v1/trust/cap_01M1A5Q6A125R5D9TT444JBDPT