fed-watch

SYNTHORA fed-watch: US reference-rate funding pulse — SOFR/EFFR/TGCR/BGCR/OBFR with volumes, percentile dispersion and the SOFR-EFFR spread (the funding-stress signal before it…

SYNTHORA fed-watch: US reference-rate funding pulse — SOFR/EFFR/TGCR/BGCR/OBFR with volumes, percentile dispersion and the SOFR-EFFR spread (the funding-stress signal before it hits the news). Cross-check of 5 independent official NY Fed series. The input for Fed/CPI prediction markets. Free official source, no key. $0.01 USDC x402 Base.

UNRATEDListed

Overview

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UNRATED

0 of 30 paid calls toward a letter

Price

$0.03 per call

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none yet

delivery unknown until someone pays

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0x10800a5a…4b427de0

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https://api.hergertsynthora.com/v1/fed-watch

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first 35 days ago · last 17 hr ago

65 free handshakes

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Score, from free handshakes onlyweights 2026.09.6

UN
RATED

0.893 liveness verified, no letter

To a letter · 30 paid calls

0 of 30

Held back by sample size, not by the seller · gap to 1.000 is 0.107: 0.106 uncertain ? + 0.001 short ? · 0.007 to A

How the composite of 0.893 is made up, part by part
Component	Weight	Measured	Lower bound ?		Adds	Short ?	Uncertain ?
livenesscosts the most it answered at all	0.60	1.00	0.894		0.536	0	−0.064
latency p95 it answered as fast as its class	0.20	1.00	0.783		0.157	−0.001	−0.042
price stability the price stayed where it was listed	0.20	1.00	1.000		0.200	0	0
Composite	1.00		0.893	gap to 1.000 = 0.107 · 0.001 short · 0.106 uncertain	0.893	−0.001	−0.106

Not measured: correctness · nobody paid; honesty · nobody paid; schema conformance · no answer had a published shape to check

The multiplication, written out

  0.600 × 0.894   liveness       
+ 0.200 × 0.783   latency p95    
+ 0.200 × 1.000   price stability
= 0.893           → UNRATED: 58 of 30 paid calls      weights 2026.09.6 · 58 samples · seed cap_01M1A59PM63S00902YTBMFN78E|2026-09-03T00:13:14.175Z|2026.09.6

Verify it yourselfnpx teppi-check https://api.hergertsynthora.com/v1/fed-watchcurl -s https://api.teppi.xyz/v1/trust/cap_01M1A59PM63S00902YTBMFN78E