hurricane-odds

SYNTHORA hurricane-odds: active tropical cyclones CROSS-VERIFIED — official NHC bulletin (category, wind, pressure, movement) crossed with an independent model (ECMWF via…

SYNTHORA hurricane-odds: active tropical cyclones CROSS-VERIFIED — official NHC bulletin (category, wind, pressure, movement) crossed with an independent model (ECMWF via open-meteo) at the storm position; discrepancies >15 kt flagged. The input for Polymarket weather/climate markets. Sources: NHC + ECMWF, free, no key. $0.006 USDC x402 Base.

UNRATEDListed

Overview

Grade?

UNRATED

0 of 30 paid calls toward a letter

Price

$0.006 per call

Paid calls

none yet

delivery unknown until someone pays

More info

Seller?

0x10800a5a…4b427de0

URL

https://api.hergertsynthora.com/v1/hurricane-odds

Seen

first 34 days ago · last 8 days ago

65 free handshakes

Payment

Pays through

x402

Offered on?

Base USDC

Listed on?

Base

Score, from free handshakes onlyweights 2026.09.6

UN
RATED

0.852 liveness verified, no letter

To a letter · 30 paid calls

0 of 30

Held back by sample size, not by the seller · gap to 1.000 is 0.148: 0.074 uncertain ? + 0.074 short ? · 0.048 to A

How the composite of 0.852 is made up, part by part
Component	Weight	Measured	Lower bound ?		Adds	Short ?	Uncertain ?
latency p95costs the most it answered as fast as its class	0.20	0.63	0.578		0.116	−0.074	−0.011
liveness it answered at all	0.60	1.00	0.894		0.536	0	−0.064
price stability the price stayed where it was listed	0.20	1.00	1.000		0.200	0	0
Composite	1.00		0.852	gap to 1.000 = 0.148 · 0.074 short · 0.074 uncertain	0.852	−0.074	−0.074

Not measured: correctness · nobody paid; honesty · nobody paid; schema conformance · no answer had a published shape to check

The multiplication, written out

  0.200 × 0.578   latency p95    
+ 0.600 × 0.894   liveness       
+ 0.200 × 1.000   price stability
= 0.852           → UNRATED: 58 of 30 paid calls      weights 2026.09.6 · 58 samples · seed cap_01M1A59PKWTDPY8NE4W640PFZD|2026-09-03T00:13:14.175Z|2026.09.6

Verify it yourselfnpx teppi-check https://api.hergertsynthora.com/v1/hurricane-oddscurl -s https://api.teppi.xyz/v1/trust/cap_01M1A59PKWTDPY8NE4W640PFZD