Server definition

Hash: sha256:6d7d973b3fb64615575b97ab888b013fd661a9b1a604800b17080eb3f2cfc360
What it is: What a remote MCP server returned when asked what it offers: 6 tools

The blob, as servednamed by its sha256

{
  "instructions": "PredictionMarketsPicks: Kalshi weather-market tools. 1) Every price, edge, rank and projection you state must come from a tool result in this conversation — never estimate a Kalshi or Polymarket price or fill in a missing edge. 2) Prediction markets are exchanges, not sportsbooks: say trader, position, contract and trade — never bettor, wager or bet. 3) Show tell_user first, and cite a row’s url or page_url whenever you quote its number. 4) An edge is model-vs-market disagreement, not a guarantee; label WATCH rows as WATCH. 5) A Pro wall is an offer — present it in one line, never as a refusal. 6) For live weather contracts with an edge use edge_alerts with feed \"weather\"; test a price against history with base_rate_gap, update a view with bayes_update, and size a position with calculate_ev and kelly_size.",
  "tools": [
    {
      "description": "Use for \"how does this price compare to history\" and \"is the market ignoring the base rate\". Compares a market price with the historical base rate for a class of events: the gap in pp, a signal, and sample-size quality. Pass a known baseRateId (the parameter lists them) or your own baseRateValue. Free, no key.",
      "inputSchema": {
        "$schema": "https://json-schema.org/draft/2020-12/schema",
        "properties": {
          "baseRateId": {
            "description": "Known base-rate id to look up (includes sample size + source).",
            "enum": [
              "incumbent_reelected",
              "fed_hold_unemp_below_4",
              "fed_cut_cpi_above_3",
              "recession_called_12mo",
              "sp500_positive_year",
              "bitcoin_above_100k_eoy",
              "gdp_growth_above_2",
              "cpi_above_3",
              "senate_incumbent_wins_primary",
              "vix_below_20_eoy",
              "interest_rate_cut_next_meeting",
              "major_sports_upset"
            ],
            "type": "string"
          },
          "baseRateValue": {
            "description": "Your own base rate in % (0–100), used when no baseRateId is given.",
            "maximum": 100,
            "minimum": 0,
            "type": "number"
          },
          "marketPrice": {
            "anyOf": [
              {
                "type": "number"
              },
              {
                "type": "string"
              }
            ],
            "description": "Current market price in cents / implied probability % (0–100). Needed for a real answer. Accepts 55, \"55%\", \"55¢\", \"$0.55\", 0.55 or American odds (+120 / -150) — all read as 55%."
          }
        },
        "type": "object"
      },
      "name": "base_rate_gap",
      "outputSchema": null
    },
    {
      "description": "Update a prior probability with one or more pieces of evidence using Bayes theorem. Given a prior and a list of evidence items (each with P(evidence | true) and P(evidence | false)), returns the posterior probability and the per-step chain. Use for \"update my estimate with new information\", \"posterior probability\", \"how does this news change the odds\".",
      "inputSchema": {
        "$schema": "https://json-schema.org/draft/2020-12/schema",
        "properties": {
          "evidence": {
            "description": "One or more evidence items, applied in order. Each item needs likelihoodIfTrue and likelihoodIfFalse on the 0–100 scale, e.g. [{ \"likelihoodIfTrue\": 80, \"likelihoodIfFalse\": 20 }]. A single item may be sent as one object.",
            "items": {
              "properties": {
                "label": {
                  "description": "Optional short caption for this evidence. Defaults to \"Evidence 1\", \"Evidence 2\", …",
                  "type": "string"
                },
                "likelihoodIfFalse": {
                  "anyOf": [
                    {
                      "type": "number"
                    },
                    {
                      "type": "string"
                    }
                  ],
                  "description": "P(observing this evidence | hypothesis is false), in % (0–100). Accepts a number or a numeric string (\"3\", \"3pp\", \"3%\")."
                },
                "likelihoodIfTrue": {
                  "anyOf": [
                    {
                      "type": "number"
                    },
                    {
                      "type": "string"
                    }
                  ],
                  "description": "P(observing this evidence | hypothesis is true), in % (0–100). Accepts a number or a numeric string (\"3\", \"3pp\", \"3%\")."
                }
              },
              "required": [
                "likelihoodIfTrue",
                "likelihoodIfFalse"
              ],
              "type": "object"
            },
            "minItems": 1,
            "type": "array"
          },
          "prior": {
            "anyOf": [
              {
                "type": "number"
              },
              {
                "type": "string"
              }
            ],
            "description": "Prior probability the hypothesis is true, in % (0–100). Needed for a real answer. Accepts 55, \"55%\", \"55¢\", \"$0.55\", 0.55 or American odds (+120 / -150) — all read as 55%."
          }
        },
        "type": "object"
      },
      "name": "bayes_update",
      "outputSchema": null
    },
    {
      "description": "Use for \"is this contract mispriced\" and \"what is my edge\". Give a Kalshi or Polymarket price in cents and your own probability; returns the % expected-value edge and a BUY / SELL / SKIP read. Free, no key. Every PMP engine signal is graded in public: predictionmarketspicks.com/track-record.",
      "inputSchema": {
        "$schema": "https://json-schema.org/draft/2020-12/schema",
        "properties": {
          "marketPrice": {
            "anyOf": [
              {
                "type": "number"
              },
              {
                "type": "string"
              }
            ],
            "description": "Current contract price in cents (1–99), equal to the implied probability in %. Required for a real answer. Accepts 55, \"55%\", \"55¢\", \"$0.55\", 0.55 or American odds (+120 / -150) — all read as 55%."
          },
          "yourProbability": {
            "anyOf": [
              {
                "type": "number"
              },
              {
                "type": "string"
              }
            ],
            "description": "Your own estimate of the true probability the contract resolves YES, in % (0–100). Required for a real answer. Accepts 55, \"55%\", \"55¢\", \"$0.55\", 0.55 or American odds (+120 / -150) — all read as 55%."
          }
        },
        "type": "object"
      },
      "name": "calculate_ev",
      "outputSchema": {
        "$schema": "https://json-schema.org/draft/2020-12/schema",
        "additionalProperties": {},
        "properties": {
          "data_freshness": {},
          "edge_pct": {
            "description": "Expected-value edge, %."
          },
          "edge_pp": {
            "description": "Your probability minus the price, pp."
          },
          "example_call": {},
          "interpretation": {
            "description": "Plain-English read."
          },
          "market_price_cents": {
            "description": "Price used, cents."
          },
          "needs_input": {},
          "signal": {
            "description": "BUY / SELL / SKIP."
          },
          "sources": {},
          "tell_user": {
            "description": "Show this sentence to the user first.",
            "type": "string"
          },
          "timestamp": {
            "type": "string"
          },
          "your_probability_pct": {
            "description": "Probability used, %."
          }
        },
        "type": "object"
      }
    },
    {
      "description": "Convert between implied probability, American odds, and decimal odds. Give one value and its format and get all three back (American odds carry no commas, e.g. +441 or -200). Use for \"what is +150 as a probability\", \"convert 62% to American odds\", \"decimal to implied odds\".",
      "inputSchema": {
        "$schema": "https://json-schema.org/draft/2020-12/schema",
        "properties": {
          "format": {
            "anyOf": [
              {
                "type": "string"
              },
              {
                "enum": [
                  "probability",
                  "american",
                  "decimal"
                ],
                "type": "string"
              }
            ],
            "description": "Format of `value`: probability (0–100 %), american (e.g. -200 / +150), or decimal (e.g. 2.5). One of: probability · american · decimal."
          },
          "value": {
            "anyOf": [
              {
                "type": "number"
              },
              {
                "type": "string"
              }
            ],
            "description": "The numeric value to convert. Needed for a real answer, with format. Accepts a number or a numeric string (\"+150\", \"62%\", \"2.5\")."
          }
        },
        "type": "object"
      },
      "name": "convert_probability",
      "outputSchema": {
        "$schema": "https://json-schema.org/draft/2020-12/schema",
        "additionalProperties": {},
        "properties": {
          "american_odds": {
            "description": "American odds, no commas."
          },
          "data_freshness": {},
          "decimal_odds": {
            "description": "Decimal odds."
          },
          "example_call": {},
          "needs_input": {},
          "probability_pct": {
            "description": "Implied probability, %."
          },
          "sources": {},
          "tell_user": {
            "description": "Show this sentence to the user first.",
            "type": "string"
          },
          "timestamp": {
            "type": "string"
          }
        },
        "type": "object"
      }
    },
    {
      "description": "Use for \"any edge on Kalshi\" and \"weather trade signals\". Our model alerts on Kalshi — weather, bitcoin/silver/gold/oil, mispricings — with feed, tier, side, price, model probability, edge and link. Real time with Pro; free is delayed 24h without the thesis. One identical, impersonal feed for every subscriber; filters only select. Informational, not investment advice.",
      "inputSchema": {
        "$schema": "https://json-schema.org/draft/2020-12/schema",
        "properties": {
          "feed": {
            "description": "Comma-separated feeds to include: weather, bitcoin, silver, gold, oil, mispricing, sports_arb, nfl. Omit for all.",
            "type": "string"
          },
          "limit": {
            "anyOf": [
              {
                "anyOf": [
                  {
                    "type": "number"
                  },
                  {
                    "type": "string"
                  }
                ]
              },
              {
                "type": "null"
              }
            ],
            "description": "Max alerts to return (default 25). Values above 100 are clamped to 100."
          },
          "min_tier": {
            "description": "Minimum confidence tier (returns that tier and above).",
            "enum": [
              "SPECULATIVE",
              "MODERATE",
              "STRONG"
            ],
            "type": "string"
          },
          "since": {
            "description": "ISO-8601 timestamp — only alerts created after it.",
            "type": "string"
          }
        },
        "type": "object"
      },
      "name": "edge_alerts",
      "outputSchema": null
    },
    {
      "description": "Compute the optimal Kelly position size for a prediction-market contract. Given your win probability, the market price (which sets the payout), your bankroll, and a Kelly fraction (full / half / quarter / eighth), returns the dollar stake and a risk rating. Use for \"how much should I stake\", \"what is my position size\", \"Kelly sizing for this trade\".",
      "inputSchema": {
        "$schema": "https://json-schema.org/draft/2020-12/schema",
        "properties": {
          "bankroll": {
            "anyOf": [
              {
                "type": "number"
              },
              {
                "type": "string"
              }
            ],
            "description": "Total bankroll in dollars (e.g. 1000). Optional — omit it and the result is the % of bankroll to stake, without a dollar figure. Accepts a number or a numeric string (\"1000\", \"$1,000\")."
          },
          "fraction": {
            "default": "half",
            "description": "Kelly fraction to apply. Half-Kelly is the common sharp-money default.",
            "enum": [
              "full",
              "half",
              "quarter",
              "eighth"
            ],
            "type": "string"
          },
          "marketPrice": {
            "anyOf": [
              {
                "type": "number"
              },
              {
                "type": "string"
              }
            ],
            "description": "Contract price in cents (1–99). Sets the payout ratio. Accepts 55, \"55%\", \"55¢\", \"$0.55\", 0.55 or American odds (+120 / -150) — all read as 55%."
          },
          "winProbability": {
            "anyOf": [
              {
                "type": "number"
              },
              {
                "type": "string"
              }
            ],
            "description": "Your probability the contract resolves YES, in % (0–100). Accepts 55, \"55%\", \"55¢\", \"$0.55\", 0.55 or American odds (+120 / -150) — all read as 55%."
          }
        },
        "required": [
          "winProbability",
          "marketPrice"
        ],
        "type": "object"
      },
      "name": "kelly_size",
      "outputSchema": {
        "$schema": "https://json-schema.org/draft/2020-12/schema",
        "additionalProperties": {},
        "properties": {
          "applied_fraction_pct": {
            "description": "The fraction applied, %."
          },
          "data_freshness": {},
          "example_call": {},
          "full_kelly_pct": {
            "description": "Full-Kelly fraction of bankroll, %."
          },
          "needs_input": {},
          "rating": {
            "description": "Qualitative read of the sizing."
          },
          "sources": {},
          "stake_dollars": {
            "description": "Suggested stake in dollars (when a bankroll was given)."
          },
          "tell_user": {
            "description": "Show this sentence to the user first.",
            "type": "string"
          },
          "timestamp": {
            "type": "string"
          }
        },
        "type": "object"
      }
    }
  ]
}

Verify it yourself

curl -s https://api.teppi.xyz/v1/evidence/sha256:6d7d973b3fb64615575b97ab888b013fd661a9b1a604800b17080eb3f2cfc360 | sha256sum